The Zero Club (Part 11) · Transport in Africa · MDB Reform Platform
Transport in Africa: 7 Countries, 19 Projects, $1.65 Billion Committed, Zero Satisfactory
The Transport Zero Club identifies seven African countries where the World Bank has never delivered a Satisfactory transport outcome — across 19 projects and $1.65 billion committed. The 44-point MS+/S+ gap across the full Transport portfolio is the widest of any sector in Africa: the Bank reports three-quarters of transport projects as successful, while less than a third meet the honest benchmark. The failure mode is structural: roads built, maintenance absent, institutional capacity not established. In the most recent decade, the record is even worse: the companion analysis (mdbreform.com/transport-record/) documents 4 cents on the dollar and four consecutive years (FY2019–22) of zero Satisfactory across 17 projects and $5.1 billion.
The Accountability Gap
The World Bank’s Transport Global Practice committed $20.6 billion across 142 IEG-evaluated projects in Sub-Saharan Africa. The MS+ rate is 75.4 percent. The S+ rate is 31.0 percent. The 44-point gap is the widest of any sector in Africa — wider than Education (41pp), MTI (43pp), Energy (41pp), or Health (40pp). The Bank reports three-quarters of transport projects as successful. By the benchmark it applies to IFC and MIGA, less than one-third meet the standard.
The Seven Zero Club Countries
| Country | Projects | Committed | S+ Rate | Pattern |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DRC | 4 | $948M | 0% | Post-conflict. Largest transport commitment in the Zero Club. MS equilibrium in concentrated form. |
| Sierra Leone | 3 | $172M | 0% | Post-conflict. Road rehabilitation without maintenance capacity. |
| Burundi | 3 | $141M | 0% | Fragile state. Infrastructure without institutional foundation. |
| Lesotho | 3 | $131M | 0% | Small state. All three MS — partial achievement on every project. |
| South Sudan | 2 | $130M | 0% | Emergency operations. Bounded achievement in extreme fragility. |
| Guinea | 2 | $70M | 0% | Both projects MU or below. |
| Niger | 2 | $58M | 0% | Sahel fragility. Limited institutional absorption. |
DRC dominates the Transport Zero Club as Ethiopia dominates Education: four projects, $948 million, not one Satisfactory. All seven Zero Club members also have 0% S+ in the recent decade (Closing FY 2015–2026), confirming the pattern is structural and ongoing — not a legacy of older projects.
The Core Failure Pattern: Build It, Don’t Maintain It
Transport’s failure mode is more uniform than other sectors. Across the Zero Club, IEG lessons repeat the same finding: roads are built, but road maintenance institutions, road funds, axle-load enforcement, and road safety systems are not established or sustained. The Bank finances construction. The country cannot maintain the asset. Within five to ten years, the infrastructure degrades to pre-project condition.
The Recent Decade: Even Worse
The companion analysis — The Transport Sector: Potholes Everywhere — examines the most recent decade (projects closing FY2015–2026) and finds the pattern has intensified: 4.1 percent S+ by commitment, twelve countries at zero Satisfactory on $5.9 billion, and four consecutive years (FY2019–22) with zero Satisfactory outcomes across 17 projects and $5.1 billion. The recent-decade analysis includes large borrowers — Kenya ($1.4bn), Ethiopia ($1.2bn), Nigeria ($918M) — that have historical Satisfactory projects but none in the past decade. The all-time Zero Club (this paper) identifies the seven countries where Transport has never delivered.
Where Transport Works
| Country | S+ Rate | Committed | Why It Worked |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cameroon | 80.0% | $280M | Roads Fund provides implementation discipline absent in health and education ministries. |
| Rwanda | 75.0% | $163M | State implementation discipline. Same governance foundation as education success. |
| Mauritania | 66.7% | $93M | Focused corridor projects with bounded objectives. |
| Zambia | 60.0% | $487M | Road Development Agency with institutional continuity. Large portfolio, sustained performance. |
The escape countries share a common feature: a dedicated institutional vehicle for road management that creates accountability for maintenance, not just construction. The Cameroon contrast is particularly telling: 80% S+ in Transport (Roads Fund) versus 0% S+ in both Health and Education (ministry-dependent). When a single-sector institution manages implementation, results improve dramatically.
The Case Study Series
| # | Case | Commitment | S+ Rate | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nigeria Water | $1.8bn | 0.4% | Published |
| 2 | Angola DPF | $2.2bn | 0% | Published |
| 3 | South Africa Energy (Eskom) | $9.13bn | — | Published |
| 4 | Ghana FCI | ~$500M | 0% | Published |
| 5 | DRC Portfolio | $6.7bn | 6.1% | Published |
| 6 | DRC Inga | $107M+ | — | Published |
| 7 | Somalia | ~$900M | 89% | Published |
| 8 | Rwanda | $4.6bn | 68.5% | Published |
| 9 | Zero Club — MTI in Africa | $10.4bn | 0% | Published |
| 10 | Zero Club — Health in Africa | $3.0bn | 0% | Published |
| 11 | Zero Club — Transport in Africa | $1.65bn | 0% | This paper |
| 12 | Zero Club — Education in Africa | $2.5bn | 0% | Published |
The Transport Zero Club documents the third sector of sustained underperformance in the World Bank’s Africa portfolio. Seven countries, 19 projects, $1.65 billion committed, zero percent Satisfactory. The 44-point MS+/S+ gap is the widest of any sector in the series. The failure mode is structural: roads built, maintenance absent, institutional capacity not established.
The escape countries — Cameroon (80% S+), Rwanda (75%), Zambia (60%), Mauritania (67%) — share one feature: a dedicated institutional vehicle that creates accountability for road management, not just construction. The reform pathway is institutional, not infrastructural.