Nigeria Water Sector · World Bank · MDB Reform Platform
Does the World Bank Learn from Project Failures? Eight Water Projects in Nigeria. 34 Years. $1.8 Billion.
The Same Diagnosis. The Same Failure. The Same Loan. From Lagos Water Supply (1993) to SURWASH (2021).
Between 1991 and 2025, the World Bank approved eight major water sector operations in Nigeria totalling $1.813 billion. Six failed. One succeeded — a $5 million community-managed pilot that put Water Consumer Associations in charge of technology selection, tariff collection, and operations. IEG’s 2006 evaluation of the early projects found the answer: “The improving trend in project outcomes can in large part be explained by a shift in responsibility for project implementation away from the Federal Ministry of Water Resources.” The Bank then approved four more federal-level projects — each larger than the last.
The Full Record
| # | Project | Commitment | Rating | Instrument |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lagos Water Supply (P002082) | $177M | Moderately Unsatisfactory | Investment |
| 2 | Water Rehabilitation (P002084) | $260M | Highly Unsatisfactory | Investment |
| 3 | First Multi-State (P002109) | $101M | Moderately Unsatisfactory | Investment |
| 4 | Small Towns Pilot (P064008) | $5M | Satisfactory | Investment |
| 5 | First NUWSRP (P071075) | $200M | Moderately Unsatisfactory | Investment |
| 6 | Second NUWSRP (P071391) | $200M | Moderately Unsatisfactory | Investment |
| 7 | Third NUWSRP (P123513) | $250M | Moderately Unsatisfactory | Investment |
| 8 | SURWASH (P170734) | $700M | MU (ISR June 2025) | PforR |
Generation One: The Federal Model Fails (1991–2001)
The Bank’s first generation of water lending was built around the Federal Ministry of Water Resources. Three large projects, implemented through a federal ministry that lacked operational authority over State Water Boards. The Water Rehabilitation Project ($260 million) was rated Highly Unsatisfactory — the worst rating IEG gives. The Niger State Water Board after $260 million in lending: 39 staff per 1,000 connections (benchmark: 2), zero percent metered (benchmark: 100%), 83 percent non-revenue water (benchmark: 15%). Kaduna State after three Bank projects: zero percent of the population with 24-hour service. Only 28 percent of water samples safe for pathogens.
The $5 Million Pilot That Worked
The Small Towns Water Supply pilot ($5 million, Satisfactory) reversed every assumption. Communities chose their technology, contributed 10 percent of costs, and managed operations through Water Consumer Associations. Twelve of sixteen systems became operational. Investment cost: $200 per household. IEG rated sustainability as Likely and institutional development as Substantial — the only project in the portfolio where both were positive.
Generation Two: The Bank Scales the Model That Failed (2004–2021)
Three consecutive National Urban Water Sector Reform Projects — $120 million, $200 million, $250 million — all through the Federal Ministry, all rated Moderately Unsatisfactory. The First NUWSRP’s gains were reversed within three years: collection efficiency 78% → 60%, O&M coverage 60% → 20%, beneficiaries 5.4 million → 4.1 million. The management ICR rated it MS; IEG’s PPAR downgraded it to MU. The Third project committed $250 million, disbursed $142 million, cancelled $86 million. Rivers State never started.
The Seventh Project: SURWASH ($700 Million)
$700 million. The largest water operation in Nigeria’s history. The instrument the Third project’s evaluation recommended (Program-for-Results). The same Federal Ministry coordinating. Some of the same states (Kaduna, Ekiti, Katsina). The June 2025 Implementation Status Report:
| Indicator | Target (2027) | Actual (May 2025) | Achievement |
|---|---|---|---|
| PDO Rating | — | Moderately Unsatisfactory | MU |
| Disbursed | $700M | $93.6M | 14% |
| People with basic water | 6,100,000 | 58,585 | < 1% |
| People with improved sanitation | 1,400,000 | 5 | 0.0004% |
| Households with improved sanitation | 280,000 | 1 | 1 of 86 met standards |
| Communities achieving ODF | 500 | 0 | Zero |
| National WASH Fund | Yes | No | Not established |
| Political/Governance Risk | Substantial | High | Upgraded |
| Fiduciary Risk | Substantial | High | Upgraded |
The Timeline: 34 Years
Tracking SURWASH: A Live Project Going Downhill
This platform will track the SURWASH project (P170734) through to its closing date in June 2027. The three source documents are published below. The ISR, the restructuring paper, and the original project appraisal document are the public record of a $700 million operation that is following the same trajectory as the six that preceded it.
The Water Global Practice has committed $700 million of IDA resources — concessional funds meant for the poorest countries — to a project that has reached less than 1 percent of its water target and achieved one household with improved sanitation after four years. The Mid-Term Review found that state-level decision-makers did not understand the lending instrument. The project has already been restructured. Political and fiduciary risks have been upgraded to High.
This is where the Water GP’s attention should be. Not on celebrity partnerships. Not on ever-more-ambitious global targets. Not on glossy launches at Spring Meetings. On the $700 million that is going downhill in the same country, in the same sector, through the same Federal Ministry, with the same structural constraints that IEG diagnosed in 2006. The track record is public. The ISR is public. The question of whether SURWASH will join the six that came before it — or become the first large-scale success in 34 years of Nigeria water lending — will be answered by June 2027. This platform will document the answer.
SURWASH Source Documents (P170734)